The Definitive 2008-2009 Power Rankings

I suppose what I always believed in my heart has finally bore itself to be true: Perjuries needed me more than I needed Perjuries. Do I feel guilty that my absence has all but brought down a fundamental institution in the mock trial community? Of course not. That would be like blaming myself for my own greatness. Besides, it's much easier to blame everyone else for their failures. Without me these past few months have flown by with little more than a peep from the Perjuries Pundits. No controversy. No excitement. No pizazz. Now, no Perjuries (for most of the time). And why? No Prognosticator - that's why.

So now that I've proven to myself that I can successfully destroy the Perjuries Empire, my next goal is to see if I can successfully build one on my own. Hence, I will continue my columns exclusively on The Deliberation Room, albeit temporarily. Now this was not a decision that I took lightly. I turned down a slew of offers from CNN, Fox News, BBC, Entertainment Tonight, New York Times, and O Magazine (Oprah is looking for either a successor or a spin-off magazine entitled "P"). In the end, I decided it was best that I build something from scratch rather than riding somebody else's coattails. The seven figure deal was just icing on the cake.

This brings us to this inaugural column for The Deliberation Room, which just so happens to be the inaugural rankings for this year. I know, we are well into the invitational season already. I know, I promised I would have rankings released before the first invitational. But I also know this is one of the more anticipated events of the mock trial year, so better late than never.

Before I get on with the rankings, let me preempt the inevitable annoying responses asking what criteria I use in creating my rankings. So the short answer is that I go with how I feel at the moment, even if there is empirical data which indicates the contrary. The long answer is that there are many factors I consider, and then I rank based on the totality of the circumstances.

Factor 1: Past Performance and Reputation. If there's one thing I know in this world, it's that it's always appropriate to predict future conduct based on past conduct. And while The AMTA has wrongfully banned most propensity evidence in their trials, I feel it's the most accurate predictor of the future. So, hypothetically, if a team wins 7 ballots in a major tournament for three years running, it's generally more likely that they will win 7 ballots in the next tournament than a team that has won 1 ballot in that same tournament in that same span. Likewise, some teams are known for getting off to great starts at the beginning of the year only to end up in the middle of the pack by the end of the year. These trends may not always occur, but we're talking about likelihoods here, so it should be taken into account. And while I realize that every year new teams break out without any expectation (to most of you, I always expect the unexpected), that's much more the exception than the rule.

Factor 2: Current Performance. While many make the mistake of putting too much weight on current performance, it still is a great indicator of current strength. So I will look at each tournament that goes by, and identify how each team performed. Performance is based not only on how many wins and losses a program has, but also the quality of those wins and losses (taking into account margin of victories and losses, as well as quality of opponent).

Factor 3: Stacking. Whether a program has fully "stacked" into "A," "B," "C," etc. teams plays a huge role early on in the season. Some teams stack right from the get-go. Others wait until regional season. This affects the quality of a given victory or loss. Say, for example, a program's "A" team beats an unstacked team from another program. That victory will count far less than if they had beaten the second team's "A" team. At the same time, however, if a team is performing well without being truly stacked, this will often work in their favor, even if they have very little success to show for. I'm ranking on potential for the end of the year, not just a current snapshot. This is why detailed information is needed for these rankings. The little things count.

Factor 4: Retention Rate. Now, for those of you who followed my trials and tribulations last year with a certain Crimson-shaded former Darling Team, I take retention into account quite a bit. Last year, despite all evidence pointing to the contrary, Harvard never drastically went down in my rankings due to the fact that they returned everyone from a first and second place finish at Golds the year before. I know that bears repeating one more time, but I'll hold my lip. Sure enough, my boys pulled it together and earned their first National Championship last year. (And going back to the last factor, I knew they never really stacked until the tournament that mattered.) So a team returning star competitors and All-Americans means that this particular team has leadership and talent where it counts. Bottom line is this: experience matters in the close rounds, and it matters in the rankings.

Factor 5: Strength of Schedule. For obvious reasons, this plays far less of a role later on in the season as the field begins to get weeded down. However, since we are still smack-dab in the middle of the invite season, arguments will fly about how one team should be penalized for only going to "easy" invites and crushing the cupcakes or another team should be rewarded for only attending the "elite" tournaments and playing the best of the best. Here is how I assess this factor: who you play and how often you play inevitably factor into the equation. For starters, a team that doesn't play often prior to regionals is not in a favorable position to move up in the rankings because I have no way assessing them. This doesn't mean that a team can't move up the charts by dominating at less competitive tournaments. It probably does mean, however, that they will hit a ceiling at some point. In sum, I believe big rounds against top teams better prepares you for nationals than not having had these encounters. Simply put, to be the best, you've got to beat the best.

Factor 6: Program Depth. This is somewhat similar to Factor 4, with a slight subtlety: with retention rate I focus a lot on actual competitors that are returning, whereas with program depth, I look to see how many potential star competitors there are. If, for example, a program had five teams last year with five wins each at regionals, this indicates that this program has a lot of talent throughout their program. This would seemingly offset the loss of any key competitors, because this program has more talent to plug in holes. So you'll notice that many teams with two teams at gold were treated very kindly in these rankings (with the exception of one).

Factor 7: Coaching. This goes hand-in-hand with reputation because many coaches have proven themselves in the past. Coaching matters for very many reasons, not the least of which because it translates most of the time to stability. Some of the most talented teams have brought themselves down in the past because of too much in-fighting, whereas some of the least talented teams have demonstrated enough cohesion to compensate for ability. Furthermore, coaching certainly helps with case strategy, trial strategy, and overall knowledge of rules and procedures.

So there you have it. Now without further ado, prepare to enter rankings bliss...


THE FABULOUS FIFTY

1. HARVARD (Last Week: 4; Week Before: 1) [8-0 (1st) at NYU; 5-6-1 at GAMTI] - My favorite mocker leads my favorite team that has made a habit out of winning 7 at gold. They have come up with the season's first marquee double ballot victory against NYU, and simply dominated each of their opponents. Key Returner: J.J. Snidow ('08 and '07 All-American); (2007-08 Season MVP)
2. BELLARMINE (LW: 2; WB: 4) [6-2 (3rd) at NYU; 9-2-1 (1st) at GAMTI; 6-2 (5th) and 2-6 at EKU] - They've positioned themselves for this last great run after a close-call last year, and they came out with the first key win of the season, and a very respectable third place finish at NYU. Key Returner: Staci Windsor ('08 All-American)
3. NYU (LW: 1; WB: 2) [6-2 (2nd) and 3-5 at NYU - They boast probably the most talented team, but history has shown that they are never in contention after round 2 at gold. Their absence at GAMTI and Derby invites means they may not be fully tested this year before nationals. Key Returner: Co'Relous Bryant ('08 All-American)
4. GEORGE WASHINGTON (LW: 3; WB: 3) [3-5 at NYU; 6-4-2 (8th) at GAMTI; 7-1 (1st), 6-2 (2nd) and 2-5-1 at Elon] - Much like Harvard last year, they return damn near everyone. However, they followed a dominating performance at Elon with mediocre-by-their-standards GAMTI and NYU performances. Key Returner: Andrew Blackwell ('08 All-American)
5. MIAMI (LW: 5; WB: 5) [7-1 (2nd) and 6-2 (4th) at Pohlmann; 5-2-1 (7th) and 1-7 at EKU] - They've lost many from an inconsistent "A" team last year, but they should return plenty from the "C" team that ended up finishing third overall at gold last year. Key Returner: Tommy Jeffcott ('08 All-American)
6. WASHINGTON-ST. LOUIS (LW: 6; WB: 12) [7-4-1 (7th) at GAMTI; 4-4 at Pohlmann; 6-1-1 (4th) and 4-4 at Billiken; 7-1 (1st) and 6-2 (3rd) at EKU] - Despite losing Cliff Smith and Claire Devine, this team is still very experienced and should and make up for last year's omission from gold. Key Returner: Brandon Harper
7. VIRGINIA (LW: 8; WB: 13) [8-4 (3rd) and 5-6-1 at GAMTI; 5-3 and 4-3-1 at Elon] - A very disappointing gold tournament last year and a ton of personnel losses make this team a big question mark. But they did come out with an impressive finish at GAMTI, so they will rise from where I originally had them. Key Returner: Paul Wiley
8. UCLA (LW: 9; WB: 11) [7-4-1 (4th) at GAMTI] - They aren't returning much from their "A" team last year, leaving mostly members from a "B" team that disappointed at gold. Like Virginia, though, they also will get a bump up following a strong GAMTI finish, which apparently wasn't their "A" team. Key Returner: James Tsuei
9. IOWA (LW: 12; WB: 15) [8-0 (1st), 6-2 (5th), 6-2 (6th), 5-2-1 (9th) at Macalester; 7-4-1 (5th) at GAMTI; 4-4 and 3-4-1 at Pohlmann; 6-2 (5th) and 2-6 at Billiken] - Here's a team that doesn't know how to lose more than 3 at gold. And this team has already been paid dividends this year for returning quite a bit from last year's "A" team, always placing a team in the top 5. Key Returner: Megan Lowe
10. CORNELL (LW: 11; WB: 8) [4-4 (8th) and 2-6 at NYU; 7-5 (10th) at GAMTI] - Last year's Darling Team will have a difficult time replacing All-American Ben Arfa and All-Poser Kareem Shabib. They do return quite a bit, including two-time All-American Anatoly Rozental. Key Returner: Alex Bowerman ('07 All-American)
11. PITTSBURGH (LW: 7; WB: 7) [4-3-1 (7th) at NYU; 7-5 (9th) at GAMTI; 8-0 (1st), 7-1 (4th) and 4-4 at Scarlet] - Despite losing a lot of talent from last year's third-place team, including team leader Keaton Carr, Pitt has had an excellent start to their season. I wouldn't be surprised if they drop in the rankings later in the year, but they'll be near the top for a while. Key Returner: Michael Wiesemann
12. TEXAS (LW: 14; WB: 9) [4-7-1 at GAMTI; 3-5 at Pohlmann; 5-3 and 3-4-1 at Elon] - This is a very deep group that finished with two teams in the top 15 at gold last year. The only thing keeping this team from being higher on this list is a mediocre start to this year. Key Returner: Anthony Franklyn ('08 and '07 All-American)
13. RICHMOND (LW: 15; WB: 36) [8-3-1 (2nd) at GAMTI; 5-2-1 (5th) and 2-6 at Elon] - Following back-to-back appearances at gold, this up-and-coming program gets a major hike up this list with a second place GAMTI finish. I don't think they'll sustain this high ranking, but they should be a fixture in the top half of the rankings. Key Returner: Katy Groover
14. FURMAN (LW: 17; WB: 18) [5-3 (5th) at NYU; 6-5-1 at GAMTI; 3-4-1 at Elon; 4-3-1 and 3-5 at EKU] - The ultimate benefit of the doubt ranking: the departures of Adams, Kuhn and Rafi has left the cupboard bare. Their 6-5-1 finish at GAMTI and top 5 finish at NYU keeps them in the 15 of the rankings after two prior very un-Furmanlike tournaments. Key Returner: Brittany Miller
15. GEORGETOWN (LW: 16; WB: 14) [5-2-1 (4th) at NYU; 4-6-2 at GAMTI; 7-0-1 (1st) and 7-1 (2nd) at Happy Valley] - We were a tad too optimistic about Georgetown last year, but this is the year they should crack the Top 10 at gold. That being said, their solid Happy Valley and NYU performances are offset by a ho-hum GAMTI tournament. Key Returner: Ryan Guptill ('07 All-American)
16. MICHIGAN (LW: 13; WB: 6) [3-4-1 at NYU; 4-7-1 at GAMTI; 4-4 at Pohlmann] - Though they've lost Alanna Holt, this is a team that is on the verge of joining the elites of the mock trial world if they can overcome somewhat of a rebuilding year. They've done little to restore my confidence in them so far this year, however. Key Returner: Sarah Wilber ('08 All-American)
17. CHICAGO (LW: 10; WB: 10) [5-2-1 (8th) and 4-4 at Macalester] - Two teams of mostly unknowns last year finished with 4 or more wins at Gold (with GW, Texas, Miami and Virginia being the only others accompishing this feat). Prepare to know some of those names this year. Key Returner: Luca Winer ('08 All-American)
18. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LW: 18; WB: 16) [6-2 (4th), 6-2 (7th), 6-2 (8th) and 4-2-2 at Great Sonoran] - After back-to-back disappointing finishes, this team returns good young talent. While they were the favorites to win the Great Sonoran, they did better as a whole than they usually do this time of the year. Key Returner: Vassi Iliadis ('08 and '07 All-American)
19. WASHINGTON & LEE (LW: 19; WB: 39) [7-4-1 (6th) at GAMTI; 4-3-1 and 3-4-1 at Elon] - Following the mother of all roller-coaster seasons, I really don't know what to expect from this bunch. From the look of the early season returns, this may be a trend that continues this year as well. Key Returner: Andy Budzinski
20. NORTHWESTERN (LW: 25; WB: 33) [7-0-1 (3rd) at Macalester; 6-2 (2nd) and 6-2 (5th) at ISU; 7-1 (1st) and 5-3 at Pohlmann] - They've lost the 1-2 punch of Jeanette Kang and David Bouchard as well as some coaching, so this ranking may be optimistic. Nonetheless, they have performed very well so far this year, so I will have to be cautiously optimistic. Key Returner: Karan Kunjuc
21. COLUMBIA (LW: 23; WB: 25) [5-3 (6th) and 4-4 (10th) at NYU; 6-2 (3rd) and 6-2 (4th) at Brandeis] - The Rankings were tough on Columbia last season, but this year they will reclaim some of the program's lost luster. So far this year, a comeback looks likely with solid finishes at NYU and Brandeis, not to mention the return of a certain coach and competitor. Key Returner: Buchanan Vines
22. LOYOLA-CHICAGO (LW: 20; WB: 19) [5-2-1 (8th) and 4-4 at ISU; 6-6 at GAMTI; 5-2-1 (6th) and 5-3 at EKU] - A team that's been on the rise in recent years and could become a mainstay near the top of the rankings. This season will be the key, as they recover from losing All-American Joe Carlasare. Key Returner: Matt McDonald
23. DUKE (LW: 21; WB: 20) [3-5 at NYU; 6-2 (3rd), 4-4 and 3-4-1 at Elon; 3-4-1 at EKU] - This team ALWAYS finishes with a 4-4 record at gold, but should improve a year following a rebuilding season. They have done much this year, but showed quite a bit of depth at regionals last year, and return a good deal of talent. Key Returner: Scott Eren
24. STANFORD (LW: 27; WB: 24) - A one-two finish at silver, plus good gold flight experience, plus a lot of returning talent, equals a breakout season. Given that UC-Berkeley is in a rebuilding year, Stanford should have the edge in the rivalry this year. Key Returner: Ed Piper ('06 All-American)
25. CINCINNATI (LW: 28; WB: 22) [5-2-1 (5th) at Pohlmann; 6-1-1 (2nd) and 6-2 (4th) at EKU] - They came heart-breakingly close to golds last year, being the first one out at both regionals and silvers. Early strong finishes this year indicates they're ready to take the next step to a gold berth. Key Returner: Nick Coorey
26. UC-BERKELEY (LW: 24; WB: 21) - Last season's projected winners fell far short, and will continue to fall due to the graduations of J'me Forrest, Kevin Lim, and Rich Shephard. One of the few teams to have yet to compete this year, too many questions remain unanswered. Key Returner: Kimya Saied
27. CENTRAL FLORIDA (LW: 31; WB: 32) [7-1 (1st), 6-1-1 (2nd) and 5-2-1 (4th) at UCF] - Another team that was oh-so-close to gold last year, they have started on the right track this year by dominating the invitational it hosted. The leaders of the Prognosticator Fan Club return a fair share of talent this year, making them dangerous. Key Returner: Brenna Egan
28. YALE (LW: 26; WB: 31) [3-4-1 at NYU; 6-6 at GAMTI; 6-2 (3rd) at Happy Valley; 5-2-1 (5th) and 4-3-1 at Brandeis] - Another team that was marred by inconsistency last year. But the Bulldogs didn't lose too much from their "A" team last year and should finish stronger on the national level. Key Returner: John Robinson
29. DRAKE (LW: 35; WB: 45) [8-0 (2nd) and 5-3 at Macalester; 6-2 (3rd) at Pohlmann; 6-2 (8th), 5-3, and 2-6 at Billiken] - Yet another team with recent setbacks at gold that consistently makes it out of its region. This year, though, Drake has come out of the gates with three excellent invitational finishes. They could make a run for a top 10 finish at gold. Key Returner: Van Everett
30. NOTRE DAME (LW: 30; WB: 29) [7-1 (2nd) and 6-2 (7th) at Billiken] - This team is like Chicago-Lite: a bunch of competitors without national name recognition. They had a dazzling start to their year at the Billiken, something that couldn't be stated in recent years past. Key Returner: Allison Ciesielski
31. MISSOURI-KANSAS CITY (LW: 29; WB: 28) [5-3 and 3-5 at Pohlmann; 7-1 (1st) at Billiken] - Here's another one of The AMTA's upstart programs, coming off of consecutive gold appearances. Last year, their "A" team underperformed, while their "B" team qualified to gold. While this resulted in a mediocre finish last year, it equates to valuable experience for the team this year. Key Returner: Tim Collins
32. EASTERN KENTUCKY (LW: 32; WB: 34) [5-7 at GAMTI; 4-4 at 2-6 at EKU] - Despite returning "The Twins," EKU has stumbled out of the gates at both GAMTI (not unexpected) and their own invitational (failing to meet expectations). The team coached by The AMTA's Prez should put it all together as the year progresses. Key Returner: Kristeena Winkler ('07 All-American)
33. UC-IRVINE (LW: 33; WB: 23) [4-4 (9th) at NYU; 4-8 at GAMTI] - They won't sneak up on many teams this season like they did last, especially with two returning All-Americans. So far this season, playing amongst the giants in The AMTA, UCI has failed to obtain a winning record. That being said, they are coached by one of The AMTA's best, so they'll have staying power. Key Returner: Marissa Oxman
34. BROWN (LW: 34; WB: 35) [8-0 (1st), 5-3 (8th) and 4-4 at Brandeis] - Even though I still have egg on my face after my lofty predictions for the Bears last year, I still believe this is one of The AMTA's most underrated teams. They've rebounded this year with one of the few 8-0 finishes of the early season. Key Returner: Mollie Jauerbaum
35. MARYLAND (LW: 22; WB: 17) [1-7 at NYU; 5-6-1 at GAMTI] - This low ranking is not a slap in the face for The AMTA's National Champ. Maryland loses nearly everyone from their title-winning team, and have started out with uninspiring performances thus far this year. Key Returner: Raymond Jones ('08 All-American)
36. NORTHWOOD (LW: 36; WB: 27) [3-9 at GAMTI; 5-3 and 3-5 at Scarlet] - They'll be very hard pressed to recapture the magic from last year's second place team. However, they return their leader from last year and they're seeing competition at invitationals this year they'd never dreamed of seeing in prior years. Key Returner: Jonathan Hartsfield ('08 All-American)
37. WAKE FOREST (LW: 37; WB: 26) [5-3 at Elon] - This is a team that could very well be ranked in the top 10 if things went according to plan. However, after a disappointing finish at gold last year and a tumultous offseason, the Deamon Deacons start out the year as The AMTA's biggest enigma. Key Returner: Tara Tedrow ('08 All-American)
38. BOSTON (LW: 38; WB: 37) [5-3 (7th) at Brandeis] - I don't quite know what to make of this team following last year's surprising finish at gold. They've started out this year with an unimpressive finish at Brandeis, but BU is not known for their fall performances. This team could finish anywhere from a Top 10 team at gold to a subpar finish at silver. Key Returner: Natalie Robinson ('08 All-American)
39. RHODES (LW: 39; WB: 38) [4-7-1 at GAMTI; 4-4 at Pohlmann; 3-5 at EKU] - The once proud program, owner of four National Championships, is expected to see unprecedented lows this year. Weak finishes at EKU, Pohlmann and GAMTI aren't surprising following a rough gold tournament and the loss of Zachary Hill. However, keep in mind: Rhodes is usually a great fall team. Key Returner: Katelyn Munsey
40. GEORGIA (LW: 42; WB: 43) [6-2 (3rd) at UCF; 5-2-1 (4th) at Elon] - I will continue to proclaim that this is the best–and deepest–team you've never seen or really even heard about. I have many reasons to be excited about this team, not the least of which is the depth they showed at regionals last year and the number of returners they boast. Key Returner: Brian Mink
41. ARIZONA STATE (LW: 53; WB: 53) [7-1 (1st), 6-2 (5th), 6-2 (6th), 5-3 and 2-6 at Great Sonoran]- It's amazing that this team controlled its own destiny in the 4th round of nationals two years ago (prompting a high preseason prediction last year), only to get shut out of gold last year. They're welcomed back into the rankings after placing three teams in the top 6 at the Great Sonoran. Key Returner: Shanley Monroe
42. TENNESSEE (LW: 44; WB: 41) [6-2 (6th) and 4-3-1 at Scarlet] - I'm not going to lie, but I know very little about the Volunteers this year. But so long as they keep making it to gold every single year (even though they've faired modestly in recent years), there will be a spot in the rankings for them. Key Returner: Jessica Puckett
43. VILLANOVA (LW: 45; WB: 42) - Another up-and-coming program, 'Nova is trying to establish itself as one of the east coast's top programs, fresh off it's second consecutive gold appearance and first honorable mention finish. A lack of early season tournaments keeps them from placing higher on these rankings. Key Returner: John Marty
44. MACALESTER (LW: 46; WB: 44) [7-1 (4th) and 4-4 at Macalester; 4-4 at Pohlmann; 6-2 (2nd) and 6-2 (3rd) at Twin Cities] - Not quite the powerhouse it used to be, but Macalester is still at the top of the class in its region. They've seemed to have recovered from losing All-American Etie-Lee Grunfeld with two top 5 finishes this year. Key Returner: Cali Cope-Kasten ('08 All-American)
45. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (LW: 41; WB: 46) [7-1 (3rd) and 0-7-1 at Billiken; 3-5 and 1-7 at EKU] - I have to admit, I did not expect much of anything from MTSU last year at both the silver and gold tournaments. I was continually proved wrong, so I will not make that mistake again this year. MTSU started off on a high note at the Billiken before a lackluster outing at EKU. Key Returner: Daniel Vaughan
46. PRINCETON (LW: 40; WB: 30) [1-7 at NYU; 1-10-1 at GAMTI] - They have expensed nearly all of the goodwill they accumulated after last year's stunning 6-2 season. It remains to be seen if the Tigers can stomach the loss of last year's leader, Aaron Spolin, but their 2-17-1 record this year leaves much to be desired. Key Returner: Elise Shlissel
47. MOREHOUSE (LW: 48; WB: 48) - Last year was the first time since Morehouse broke out into the national scene that they failed to win four ballots at gold, albeit largely due to a very difficult schedule. Expect them to bounce back this year, even as they go another fall semester without competing in a tournament. Key Returner: Edward Mitchell ('08 All-American)
48. PENN STATE (LW: 47; WB: 47) [3-4-1 at Happy Valley] - So far, not-so-good. The Nittany Lions followed a 2-6 gold finish with a dismal performance at their own invitational. If they were not a perennial gold qualifier they would not be given the benefit of the doubt so early in the season. Key Returner: Aaron Jones ('08 All-American)
49. BOWLING GREEN (LW: 51; WB: 50) [6-1-1 (2nd) at Great Sonoran; 4-4, 4-4 and 3-5 at Scarlet; 5-3 (4th) and 4-4 at Happy Valley] - Having lost All-American Allison Smith, Bowling Green started off the year with underwhelming finishes at both the Scarlet and Happy Valley invites. A trip out West, however, either signals a Bowling Green turnaround or exposes weak West Coast competition. We'll opt for the former as of now. Key Returner: Lauren Biksacky
50. REDLANDS (LW: 58; WB: 65) [6-2 (3rd) and 1-7 at Great Sonoran; 7-1 (3rd) at Scarlet] - I had already abandoned ship on what I believed was a capsizing Redlands team, ready to proclaim their '07 gold finish a fluke. But with two consecutive 3rd place finishes, I'm willing to give Redlands a second chance to make up for last year's silver performance. Key Returner: Jessie Sjol ('07 All-American)

THE NEXT TEN
Syracuse
Brandeis [5-3 at Pohlmann; 5-3 (10th) and 4-3-1 at Brandeis]
Ohio State [6-2 (5th), 5-2-1 and 5-3 at Scarlet; 5-3 (8th) and 4-4 at EKU]
Charleston
Air Force [4-4 and 3-5 at Great Sonoran]
Emory [7-1 (2nd) and 5-2-1 at Scarlet] - My pick for Sleeper of the Year.
Georgia Tech [4-4 at Elon; 2-5-1 at UCF; 4-4 and 3-5 at EKU]
Wisconsin-Superior [5-3 (10th) and 4-4 at Macalester; 7-1 (1st) and 4-4 at Twin Cities]
Hamline [3-3, 2-6 and 2-6 at Macalester; 4-3-1 at Pohlmann; 6-2 (6th) at Billiken; 2-6 and 1-7 at Twin Cities]
Southern Methodist [5-2-1 (9th), 3-4-1, and 3-4-1 at Billiken]

ON THE RADAR: Claremont McKenna, DePaul, Mississippi, North Carolina, Minnesota-Morris

Greatest Gains:
1. Arizona State - 12 spots
2. Redlands - 8 spots
3. Drake - 6 spots

Biggest Drops:
1.(tie) Maryland - 13 spots
1.(tie) Air Force - 13 spots
3. Princeton - 6 spots

***

So this week we have what many feel to be the most talented invite of the fall: The Derby Challenge. I tend to disagree with that sentiment, as I tend to think that no tournament beats The First Annual Prognosticator Gauntlet. If you are wondering why your team never got the invitation to my first ever tournament hosting duties, it's because it is that exclusive. It's somewhat of the triathlon of mock trial competitions, mostly because it is ultimately decided by a round with the first two teams to win the cycling portion of the event. But back to the Derby. Three of my top five teams will be in attendance, so I figure it should be worth predicting. So here's how I see the top five shaking out in Kentucky:

1. Bellarmine (7-1)
2. UVA (6-1-1)
3. Iowa (6-2)
4. Furman (5-3)
5. Miami (5-3)

***

While we're at it, here is something else for all of you to chew on. I'd like to introduce the First Annual Prognosticator Pre-Season All-American Team, which is a list of the fifteen competitors who I believe are currently the best in the country (which will skew very heavily to attorneys). Not only is this a great exercise for me to display my astounding prognosticating powers, but I will give these 15 lucky individuals an all-important addition to each of their resumes.

2008-2009 PROGNOSTICATOR PRE-SEASON ALL-AMERICAN TEAM

First Team

Co'Relous Bryant, NYU
Brandon Harper, Washington-St. Louis
J.J. Snidow, Harvard
Buchanan Vines, Columbia
Staci Windsor, Bellarmine

Second Team

Andrew Blackwell, George Washington
Alex Bowerman, Cornell
Anthony Franklyn, Texas
Justin Matarrese, NYU
Tara Tedrow, Wake Forest

Third Team

Van Everett, Drake
Ryan Guptill, Georgetown
Jonathan Hartsfield, Northwood
Anatoly Rozental, Cornell
Kristeena Winkler, Eastern Kentucky

***

Well, that about does it. I'm interested to see how well this Deliberation Room experiment works out. One of the benefits is that I can decide to post this whatever time I please, just to throw off those of you who are still trying to determine my true identity.

Also, don't expect rankings with anywhere near this much detail in the future. Hell, don't expect any further rankings without updates on teams through the invitational season. This is too much work to handle on my own. Besides, I have a certain Inauguration Speech I've been asked to write that's due in early January.

In the meantime, may the force be with you.